Joba needs to start.
First and foremost, the main point is this: I can’t stand a Yankee fan being so upset over losing a game at the end of May because Latroy Hawkins is pitching in the 11th inning.
At this point last season, the Yankees sat at 21-27. The sky was falling, the Yankees were going to miss the playoffs for the first time since 1993.
On May 27, 2007, the Yankees dropped a 4-3 game to the Angels on a Sunday afternoon. ESPN’s quick recap said this: “• Summary: The Angels barely had to swing their bats in a three-run seventh-inning rally against the Yankees’ beleaguered bullpen and Los Angeles swept the reeling Yankees.”
So I’m thinking this time last year the Yankees had some bullpen problems. I’m sure there were the “chicken little” Yankee fans who thought the season was over, the bullpen was toast, because Mariano Rivera was 1-3, with two blown saves and a 5.94 ERA. I’m also thinking just about all those fans wouldn’t have had a clue who Joba Chamberlain was if he sat next to them on the train.
Now of course, Joba is one the most electric relievers in the game today. When he can crank that fastball up to 100, and drop his slider off the table, there’s nobody on the planet who wants to step into the batters box against him. But just because he can’t dial it up every time he throws the ball he won’t be a good starter?
I cant almost guarantee that there are a ton of hot-shot pitchers who came up and pitched out of the bullpen and fizzled out so quickly no one remembers there names. This will be something that I will keep running throughout the year, I’ll think of guys randomly and write about them. I wanted to find something to keep writing about over the summer while school was out, and I this subject is something I wll come back to.
The other thing that gets on my nerves is people already upset that the Yankees didn’t get Johan Santana, ready to call Hughes and Kennedy busts. Brian Cashman needs to be out as GM. It reminds me of Nomaas’ slogan at the top of their blog: “If we had $200 million to burn, the Yankees would never lose a game.” And sadly I think they believe that. They just put that back at the top of the blog after having a reference to the WNBA for a week or so. Talk about fair weather fans. I don’t know what anybody possibly see’s in those guys.
Anyway, the deal to not trade for Santana was made for the FUTURE. The FUTURE is not two months in the next season!! Young pitchers have bumps in the road. How many come up with no trouble and are great off the bat? (Besides Tim Lincecum) And on top of that, this is what Buster Olney led off his daily blog on ESPN.com with last Friday.
After the item on Johan Santana’s diminished velocity was posted here yesterday, some scouts from other teams chimed in, indicating through e-mails and phone calls that they were seeing the same thing. “The Mets were asking around about that in spring training, about what his true [velocity] baseline was,” one talent evaluator said. “They were concerned.”
Said an AL scout who has seen Santana this month: “His stuff isn’t even close to what it was [with the Twins].”
How much has his diminished stuff affected him? We have less than two months’ worth of starts to consider from 2008, a very small sample, and keep in mind that except for last season — when Santana suffered a significant statistical decline in the last six weeks — he has often done his best work in the second half.
With that said, here are the primary indicators:
* His ratio of strikeouts per nine innings over the past six seasons has been 11.38, 9.61, 10.46, 9.25, 9.44, 9.66. This year: 7.79.
* His strikeout-to-walk ratio over the past six seasons: 2.80, 3.60, 4.91, 5.29, 5.21, 4.52. This year: 3.87.
* Opponents’ OPS over the past six seasons: .607, .642, .564, .594, .616, .678. This year: .723.
As I wrote a lot about during the winter of Santana trade talks, rival talent evaluators saw a noticeable — not dramatic, but noticeable — decline in his stuff after his 17-strikeout performance against Texas on Aug. 19. He’s made 17 starts since then, and here are his primary numbers:
* Innings: 111
* Hits: 109
* Earned runs: 50
* Home runs: 20 (By comparison, Paul Byrd has allowed 21 during the same span)
* Walks: 28
* Strikeouts: 102
* ERA: 4.05
(Since the beginning of the 2007 season, Santana has allowed 44 home runs — most in the majors.)
Look, Santana is still obviously among the better pitchers in the game, and his remarkable ability to change speeds means that he probably is going to age better than a lot of his peers. He is smart, dedicated and seriously competitive, so if there is something to figure out and there are adjustments that can be made, he’ll get there.
This question remains: Will he be worth to the Mets what they will pay him over the duration of the contract? We’ll see.
But it’s probably not a good thing that rival scouts are seeing signs of diminishment fewer than two months into a seven-year deal.
I’m not trying to spell out the demise of Johan Santana. He’s still one of the best pitchers in the game. But maybe, just MAYBE, he wouldn’t even have been the savior the Yankees needed THIS SEASON.
A post from Peter Abraham on his LoHud Blog, on January 30th, the day the Mets-Twins deal for Santana went down:
Bob Klapisch of The Record reported today that the Twins tried a last-ditch proposal of Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera and another prospect for Johan Santana.
No dice. Klap also says the Red Sox took both Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester off the table.
In the end, Minnesota had little choice but to take what the Mets were offering. Omar Minaya got Santana and held on to his best pitching prospect (Mike Pelfrey) and his best hitting prospect (Fernando Martinez).
Talked to three people today about the deal, two scouts and a former GM. They all said the Twins were held up without a gun. Carlos Gomez is fast. And beyond that, well he’s fast. He’s an undisciplined hitter with a good glove.
Phil Humber is a kid the Mets had no faith in when they were searching bus stations and homeless shelters for starters last season. Deolis Guerra is a big (6-5) kid with a below-average fastball. Kevin Mulvey’s ceiling may be as a No. 4 starter.
There is no question whatsoever that the Yankees or the Red Sox could have come up with the players to make the trade yesterday. But both teams were clearly put off by the idea of paying Santana $120 million.
Good as he is, there were red flags all over his second half of the season. The idea in baseball now is to pay a pitcher for what he can do for you, not for what he did for somebody else.
Meanwhile, hot dogs at the new stadium in Queens will be $17.50.
Is it not possible the Yankees are actually trying to build a winning team with a young core? All Yankee fans have been subjected to that same, “Oh you guys bought all your World Series rings,” only to shoot back with, “So we bought Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, and Andy Pettitte?” Those were the core guys, who were surrounded with great complementary players. Obviously those days are gone, but when Carlos F’ing Silva gets four years and $48 million from Seattle this past offseason, Barry Zito gets $126 million, Jeff Suppan gets $42 million over four years, Jason Schmidt gets $47 million over three years, can’t we realize that maybe it’s time to use our financial strength in better ways? I love seeing the Yankees go into the draft and take the best players available, no matter what Scott Boras’ crazy demands are that scares away the Royals and Pirates from taking these kids at the top of the draft. Bring in good young talent, and keep the good young talent we have now.
Aside from the whole other point of what defines a successful season, Yankee fans have been spoiled. So maybe we don’t make the playoffs this year. Guess what, ticket prices are only going through the roof next season anyway. And the promotion and hype machine will be going full out, and people will be filling the new ball park next year. If you wanna jump off the wagon now and demand that a $200 million team better be great every year, be my guest. But just know your seat will be taken before you hit the ground.
- Gene